Cardi B at the Super Bowl halftime show
Same question on both venues. Kalshi paid Yes holders 26 cents. Polymarket paid a full dollar.
The title said
Will Cardi B perform at the Super Bowl halftime show?
The rules said
The two venues defined 'perform' differently. One counted any appearance on stage during the show; the other required a listed performer or a full performance, and fell back to a last-traded-price style settlement when the appearance was judged partial.
What happened
Cardi B appeared briefly. Polymarket resolved Yes at $1. Kalshi settled Yes holders at roughly 26 cents. Traders who thought they held the same bet on both venues held two different contracts.
The lesson
When the same event trades on both venues, read both rule sets. The title is the same. The contract is not.
What our card would have shown
- R4Unusual settlement clause — may not pay full value
- R2Rules don't say what counts as done
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Every Sunday: the five worst-worded open markets and the clause that will burn people.