Cardi B at the Super Bowl halftime show
Same question on both venues. Kalshi paid Yes holders 26 cents. Polymarket paid a full dollar.
The title said
Will Cardi B perform at the Super Bowl halftime show?
The rules said
Polymarket asked only that Cardi B perform live and in person, and named footage of the show as the source. Kalshi's rules drew a line inside the word: singing and dancing counted as performing, dancing in the background did not. Kalshi's rules also let it settle at the last traded price when the call was too close to make.
What happened
Cardi B appeared briefly during Bad Bunny's halftime show on 8 February 2026. She danced and mouthed words. Polymarket disputed it for three days, then ruled that her presence and participation counted, and paid Yes holders in full. Kalshi judged the appearance ambiguous and settled at the last traded price before it paused trading: 26 cents to Yes, 74 cents to No. One Kalshi trader filed a complaint with the CFTC.
The lesson
When the same event trades on both venues, read both rule sets. The title is the same. The contract is not.
What our card would have shown
- R4Unusual settlement clause, may not pay full value
- R2Rules don't say what counts as done
Sources
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