The dispute archive

Every settlement fight we know of, with the wording that caused it. Read these before your first trade. They are the same mistake, made over and over, by people who read the title.

• 2026-02· kalshi + polymarket
  Khamenei out as Supreme Leader
  Kalshi's rules said a leader leaving only through death pays the last traded price, not a dollar. Polymarket paid Yes in full.
• 2026-02· kalshi + polymarket
  Cardi B at the Super Bowl halftime show
  Same question on both venues. Kalshi paid Yes holders 26 cents. Polymarket paid a full dollar.
• 2025-11· polymarket
  The day the shutdown ended
  The bill was signed on the 12th. The market paid the 13th.
• 2025-03· polymarket
  Fort Knox gold audit
  Officials talked about an audit all spring. The rules needed one to start.
• 2025-03· polymarket
  Ukraine minerals deal
  The market resolved Yes on 25 March. The deal was signed on 30 April.
• 2025-03· kalshi + polymarket
  US strategic bitcoin reserve
  The order created the reserve. The market still resolved No, because seized coins did not count.

Know one we're missing? Email sharpbookio@gmail.com with the market and what happened.