The dispute archive

Every settlement fight we know of, with the wording that caused it. Read these before your first trade. They are the same mistake, made over and over, by people who read the title.

• 2026-06· kalshi + polymarket
  Khamenei out as Supreme Leader
  Kalshi's rules said a leader leaving only through death pays the last traded price, not a dollar. Polymarket paid out $529m.
• 2026-02· kalshi + polymarket
  Cardi B at the Super Bowl halftime show
  Same question on both venues. Kalshi paid Yes holders 26 cents. Polymarket paid a full dollar.
• 2025-11· kalshi + polymarket
  Government funding deal
  The government was funded. The written question asked something narrower. Traders lost.
• 2025-03· polymarket
  Fort Knox gold audit
  The word 'allow' decided a $3.5m market.
• 2025-03· polymarket
  Ukraine minerals deal
  The market jumped to 100% and resolved Yes before any deal was signed.
• 2025-03· kalshi + polymarket
  US strategic bitcoin reserve
  One venue needed the government to hold any bitcoin, the other needed a formal reserve. The price gap looked like free money and wasn't.

Know one we're missing? Email hello@sharpbook.io with the market and what happened.