Khamenei out as Supreme Leader
Kalshi's rules said a leader leaving only through death pays the last traded price, not a dollar. Polymarket paid out $529m.
The title said
Will Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran by [date]?
The rules said
Kalshi's contract carried a clause that if the leader left office only by death, the market would settle at the last traded price rather than at $1. Polymarket's rules treated death as leaving office and paid Yes in full.
What happened
Khamenei died in office. Polymarket Yes holders were paid in full, reportedly $529m. Kalshi Yes holders received the last traded price, which was far below a dollar.
The lesson
A 'death' or 'last traded price' clause changes what a Yes share is worth. It is one sentence deep in the rules and it decides everything.
What our card would have shown
- R4Unusual settlement clause — may not pay full value
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