Smallprint by Sharpbook
You bet on the title.
You get paid on the rules.
We read the settlement rules of every political and news market on Kalshi and Polymarket and tell you, in plain English, what actually pays out. No predictions. No tips. Just what the words say.
Worst-worded markets right now
Browse all →Open markets with the most settlement red flags, biggest first.
The first read is running. Check back in a few minutes.
The weekly five
Every Sunday: the five worst-worded open markets, and the exact clause that will burn people. One email, no fluff.
This has happened before
- Cardi B at the Super Bowl halftime show — Same question on both venues. Kalshi paid Yes holders 26 cents. Polymarket paid a full dollar.
- Khamenei out as Supreme Leader — Kalshi's rules said a leader leaving only through death pays the last traded price, not a dollar. Polymarket paid out $529m.
- Government funding deal — The government was funded. The written question asked something narrower. Traders lost.
- US strategic bitcoin reserve — One venue needed the government to hold any bitcoin, the other needed a formal reserve. The price gap looked like free money and wasn't.
How it works
Every 15 minutes we pull the rules text of every open non-sports market on both venues. Each unique text is read once and turned into a fixed set of facts: what triggers Yes, who decides, by when, and what looks like a win but isn't. Plain code turns those facts into the card. The model never writes the verdict, so the same rules always give the same card.
If the rules are too vague to summarise, we say so. That is a signal too.