2025-11· kalshi + polymarket
Government funding deal
The government was funded. The written question asked something narrower. Traders lost.
The title said
Will the government shutdown end by [date]?
The rules said
The rules tied resolution to a specific legal instrument being signed into law (a full appropriations package or a continuing resolution with particular terms), not to the government simply being open.
What happened
A funding measure passed that did not match the instrument named in the rules. The government was open. The market resolved No.
The lesson
'Funded', 'ended', 'passed' and 'signed' are different moments. If the rules do not say which one counts, assume the strictest.
What our card would have shown
- R2Rules don't say what counts as done
- R3Some obvious wins don't count
Don't be the next entry.
Every Sunday: the five worst-worded open markets and the clause that will burn people.