The day the shutdown ended
The bill was signed on the 12th. The market paid the 13th.
The title said
What day will the government shutdown end?
The rules said
The ladder did not pay on the day the shutdown ended. It paid on the first calendar date, Eastern time, that the Office of Personnel Management announced the federal government was no longer shut down for a lapse in appropriations. One agency, one website, one clock.
What happened
Trump signed the funding bill on the night of 12 November 2025, ending a record 43-day shutdown. OPM's site still showed a lapse at 11:59 that night. Traders had bought the 12 November leg heavily on the day's news; roughly $13.1m traded on it. At midnight it went to nothing. OPM updated the next day and the 13 November leg paid a dollar.
The lesson
'Funded', 'ended', 'signed' and 'announced' are four different moments. The rules pick one. Read which.
What our card would have shown
- R2Rules don't say what counts as done
- R3Some obvious wins don't count
Sources
Don't be the next entry.
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