US strategic bitcoin reserve
One venue needed the government to hold any bitcoin, the other needed a formal reserve. The price gap looked like free money and wasn't.
The title said
Will the US establish a national bitcoin reserve?
The rules said
One venue resolved Yes if the federal government held bitcoin in any designated form. The other required an explicitly established 'strategic reserve' by executive order or statute, with the term defined.
What happened
An executive order created a reserve from already-seized coins. One contract paid Yes. The other did not, because the order did not meet its narrower definition. Traders who 'arbitraged' the two prices were long one contract and short a different one.
The lesson
A price gap between venues is only free money if the trigger, the source and the deadline are identical. Usually one of them is not.
What our card would have shown
- R2Rules don't say what counts as done
- R7A specific counterparty is named
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Every Sunday: the five worst-worded open markets and the clause that will burn people.