Ukraine minerals deal
The market resolved Yes on 25 March. The deal was signed on 30 April.
The title said
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
The rules said
The rules paid on the two governments agreeing to any deal that explicitly involved Ukrainian rare earths, by 31 March. An announcement counted regardless of when anything was implemented. The named source was official information from the US and Ukrainian governments. Nothing in the text asked for a signature.
What happened
The oracle voted Yes early on 25 March 2025, with about $7.1m traded and no agreement announced by either government. Traders called it a market failure. Polymarket said it was not one and declined refunds. Researchers traced roughly a quarter of the votes to a single large UMA holder spread across three accounts. The deal was actually signed on 30 April.
The lesson
'Agrees' is not 'signs'. And a named source only binds the outcome if the people voting are made to use it.
What our card would have shown
- R2Rules don't say what counts as done
- R5The venue decides, at its own discretion
Sources
Don't be the next entry.
Every Sunday: the five worst-worded open markets and the clause that will burn people.