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2025-03· polymarket

Fort Knox gold audit

The word 'allow' decided a $3.5m market.

The title said

Will the government allow an audit of Fort Knox?

The rules said

Resolution turned on whether an audit was 'allowed', without saying whether an announcement, a visit, a scheduled audit or a completed one was the bar.

What happened

Officials announced a visit and said an audit would happen. The market resolved No. Yes holders argued the announcement was permission; the resolution said it was not.

The lesson

One undefined verb in the rules is one coin-flip you didn't know you were holding.

What our card would have shown

  • R2Rules don't say what counts as done

Don't be the next entry.

Every Sunday: the five worst-worded open markets and the clause that will burn people.