2025-03· polymarket
Fort Knox gold audit
The word 'allow' decided a $3.5m market.
The title said
Will the government allow an audit of Fort Knox?
The rules said
Resolution turned on whether an audit was 'allowed', without saying whether an announcement, a visit, a scheduled audit or a completed one was the bar.
What happened
Officials announced a visit and said an audit would happen. The market resolved No. Yes holders argued the announcement was permission; the resolution said it was not.
The lesson
One undefined verb in the rules is one coin-flip you didn't know you were holding.
What our card would have shown
- R2Rules don't say what counts as done
Don't be the next entry.
Every Sunday: the five worst-worded open markets and the clause that will burn people.