Will the Democratic party win the governorship in Idaho — Democratic:: Democratic party
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 4¢
The catch
Resolves on inauguration, not election day results or projections.
“If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Idaho pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
A Democratic party member is sworn in as Idaho governor after the 2026 election.
“If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Idaho pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM ET following the swearing in of the Governor for <state> pursuant to the election in question or a year after the popular vote for the Governorship in <election year>
“Expiration Date: The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM ET following the swearing in of the Governor for <state> pursuant to the election in question or a year after the popular vote for the Governorship in <election year>.” · contract terms ↗Counts as done when: swearing in of the Governor
“If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Idaho pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Idaho, US State Governments, The New York Times (NYT), The Associated Press (AP), Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), CNN, Fox News, NBC News, CBS News, ABC News
“Source Agency: The Source Agency is <state>.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
If the governor-elect changes party between election day and swearing in, the market resolves based on their party on election day
“If the individual announces they have changed party between the election and being sworn in, the market will resolve based on the party they were a part of on election day.” · contract terms ↗- A Democrat wins the election on election night but dies or resigns before inauguration, and a non-Democrat is sworn inour reading
- Media projects a Democratic winner but the result is overturned before inaugurationour reading
- A Democrat wins but switches parties between election day and inauguration (resolves based on election day party)our reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If a vacancy occurs in the seat following the election (e.g. a Governor-elect resigns the seat prior to their seating), the party of the person first sworn in as their temporary, or permanent, replacement in that seat will be encompassed within the Payout Criterion.” · contract terms ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Contingencies: Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of Idaho following the 2026 election, the market resolves to Yes. The market can be settled early if at least four of eight designated media organizations project the winner and none contradict.
What the rules leave open
What happens if no one is sworn in within a year of the popular vote - does the market resolve No or is there another outcome?
closest the rules come: “Expiration Date: The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM ET following the swearing in of the Governor for <state> pursuant to the election in question or a year after the popular vote for the Governorship in <election year>.” · contract terms ↗