Will the Republican party win the governorship in Idaho — Republican:: Republican party
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 96¢
The catch
Resolves on inauguration, not election results; early settlement requires four media projections.
“If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Idaho pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
A Republican party member is inaugurated as Idaho's governor following the 2026 election.
“If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Idaho pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM ET following the swearing in of the Governor for <state> pursuant to the election in question or a year after the popular vote for the Governorship in <election year>
“The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM ET following the swearing in of the Governor for <state> pursuant to the election in question or a year after the popular vote for the Governorship in <election year>.” · contract terms ↗Counts as done when: inauguration of the governor
“If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of Idaho pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Idaho, US State Governments
“The Source Agency is <state>.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
If the winner changes party between election day and inauguration, the market resolves based on their party on election day.
“If the individual announces they have changed party between the election and being sworn in, the market will resolve based on the party they were a part of on election day.” · contract terms ↗- A Republican wins the election but dies or resigns before inauguration, and a non-Republican is sworn in as replacementour reading
- A Republican wins the election but changes party affiliation after election day but before inaugurationour reading
- Media projects a Republican winner but the actual inauguration doesn't occur within the deadline periodour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If a Republican party representative is inaugurated as Idaho's governor following the 2026 election, the market resolves to Yes. The market can be settled early if at least four of eight designated media organizations project the winner and none contradict.
What the rules leave open
What happens if no one is inaugurated within a year after the popular vote?
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM ET following the swearing in of the Governor for <state> pursuant to the election in question or a year after the popular vote for the Governorship in <election year>.” · contract terms ↗What constitutes being 'a member of' the Republican party for someone who has never formally registered with the party but runs on their ticket?
closest the rules come: “The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the person sworn in to the governorship of <state> pursuant to the election in <election year> is a member of <political party>.” · contract terms ↗