Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? — Stephen A. Smith
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 19¢
The catch
Just filing with the FEC doesn't count; AOC must publicly announce her campaign.
“Merely filing a campaign with the Federal Election Committee is insufficient to resolve the market; <person> must announce their campaign and it must be reported by a Source Agency.” · contract terms ↗
Pays out only if
Stephen A. Smith announces a presidential campaign for the 2028 Democratic nomination.
“If Stephen A. Smith announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before December 31, 2027
“If Stephen A. Smith announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: announcement reported by a Source Agency
“Merely filing a campaign with the Federal Election Committee is insufficient to resolve the market; <person> must announce their campaign and it must be reported by a Source Agency.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC
“The Source Agencies are <person>, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and NBC.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Merely filing a campaign with the Federal Election Committee without a public announcement
“Merely filing a campaign with the Federal Election Committee is insufficient to resolve the market; <person> must announce their campaign and it must be reported by a Source Agency.” · contract terms ↗- AOC files FEC paperwork for a 2028 presidential campaign but does not publicly announce itour reading
- AOC announces she is exploring or considering a 2028 presidential run but does not formally announce a campaignour reading
- AOC announces a presidential campaign on or after January 1, 2028our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(d) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If Stephen A. Smith announces a presidential campaign to contest the Democratic party's presidential nomination for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes an 'announcement' - does it require a formal campaign event, or would a statement on social media or in an interview count?
closest the rules come: “Merely filing a campaign with the Federal Election Committee is insufficient to resolve the market; <person> must announce their campaign and it must be reported by a Source Agency.” · contract terms ↗Whether the announcement must explicitly use the word 'announce' or if stating 'I am running' or similar language would suffice
closest the rules come: “If Stephen A. Smith announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Whether an exploratory committee announcement would count as announcing a campaign
closest the rules come: “Merely filing a campaign with the Federal Election Committee is insufficient to resolve the market; <person> must announce their campaign and it must be reported by a Source Agency.” · contract terms ↗