Kalshi· Politics· open· closes 2029-01-20

Will Obamacare be repealed before Jan 20, 2029? — Before Jan 20, 2029

We haven't read this market's rules yet. The original text is below.

Original rules text

If a bill becomes law that eliminates any of the following ACA provisions: (1) the employer mandate (2) the Medicaid eligibility expansion (3) the protection for preexisting conditions (4) permitting people up to the age of 26 to be on their parents' health care plans or (5) ends the premium subsidies for households on the ACA marketplace before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. More specifically, the requirements are that a bill either: ends the shared responsibility (penalty) provisions for employers, or reduces those penalties to $0; eliminates the expansion of Medicaid eligibility to non-elderly adults with incomes up to 133% of the poverty level; ends the prohibition on coverage exclusions based on pre existing conditions; redefines the term “dependent” for the purposes of the ACA’s employer shared responsibility provisions from meaning a child under 26 to a child under 18 or younger; or ends premium subsidies for individuals whose household incomes are between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level for premiums purchased on an ACA exchange. Merely reducing the subsidies to something other than $0 is not sufficient.

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