Will Luke Evans be the next James Bond? — Luke Evans
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 0¢
The catch
Only the first person announced as the next Bond counts; later announcements resolve No.
“However, if one person is announced as playing James Bond, other strikes will resolve "No" even if they are subsequently announced as playing James Bond.” · contract terms ↗
Pays out only if
Luke Evans is announced as cast as the next James Bond.
“If Luke Evans is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before December 31, 2029
“If Luke Evans is cast as the next James Bond before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: announced to be cast
“The Underlying for this Contract is the actor announced to be cast as the next James Bond between issuance and <date>.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Eon Productions, MGM, Amazon Studios, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Deadline
“The Source Agencies are Eon Productions, MGM and Amazon Studios, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Deadline.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Spin-offs and unauthorized productions do not count
“This is for the next film in the James Bond series, which goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.” · market rules ↗If another actor is announced first, Luke Evans being announced later resolves No
“However, if one person is announced as playing James Bond, other strikes will resolve "No" even if they are subsequently announced as playing James Bond.” · contract terms ↗- Luke Evans is announced as Bond after another actor was already announced firstour reading
- Luke Evans is cast in an unauthorized Bond production or spin-offour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If multiple <actors> are announced cast as Bond at the same time (e.g. as an older and younger Bond), then both will resolve to Yes.” · contract terms ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(d) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If Luke Evans is cast as the next James Bond before January 1, 2030, the market resolves to Yes. This is for the next film in the official James Bond series that goes back to Dr. No (1962); spin-offs and unauthorized productions are not included.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes an official announcement versus a rumor or leak
closest the rules come: “The Underlying for this Contract is the actor announced to be cast as the next James Bond between issuance and <date>.” · contract terms ↗Whether all six Source Agencies must report the announcement or just one
closest the rules come: “The Source Agencies are Eon Productions, MGM and Amazon Studios, Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, and Deadline.” · contract terms ↗