Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2? — Yes
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 18¢
The catch
At least 3 of the 5 conditions must occur, not just any one.
“If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
At least 3 of 5 economic crisis indicators occur in releases published after Issuance and before July 2028.
“If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗Has to happen before June 30, 2028
“occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: release published by the relevant source agency
“occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗Decided by: BLS, S&P 500, Zillow, labor share of gross domestic income (GDI), CPI-U
“The Source Agencies for each <outcome> in <outcomes> are those designated in the governing <rule>.” — contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to the underlying data made after Expiration do not count.
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” — contract terms ↗Outcomes canceled, annulled, or postponed beyond the time period are excluded from the count.
“If an <outcome> is canceled, annulled, or postponed beyond the <time period>, it is excluded from the count of <outcomes>.” — contract terms ↗- Only 2 of the 5 conditions occurour reading
- All 5 conditions occur but after July 2028our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” — contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-09. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If at least 3 of the following 5 conditions occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, the market resolves to Yes: 1. The unemployment rate exceeds 10% in a monthly BLS release 2. The S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance 3. The Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% year-over-year in any of these cities: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix 4. The labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% 5. CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) year-over-year falls below 0% in any monthly release
What the rules leave open
What is the 'Issuance' date from which the S&P 500 decline is measured and after which releases must be published?
closest the rules come: “occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗Which specific BLS unemployment rate series is used (U-3, U-6, or another measure)?
What is the exact S&P 500 closing level on Issuance from which the 30% decline is calculated?
closest the rules come: “S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance” — market rules ↗For the Zillow Home Value Index, does 'YoY' mean year-over-year from the same month in the prior year, or a different comparison?
closest the rules come: “Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix” — market rules ↗Which specific Zillow Home Value Index is used (all homes, single-family, condos, etc.)?
closest the rules come: “Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix” — market rules ↗What geographic boundaries define NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, and Phoenix (city limits, metro areas, counties)?
closest the rules come: “Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix” — market rules ↗Which specific CPI-U series is used (index level, 12-month percentage change, or another measure)?
closest the rules come: “CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release” — market rules ↗