Will the Democratic party win below 210 House seats in the 120th Congress? — Below 210
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 8¢
The catch
Counts seats as of February 1, 2027, not the election result.
“If the Democratic party has below 210 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Democratic party has fewer than 210 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Democratic party has below 210 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Democratic party has below 210 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Composition documented by Congress on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to the composition made after February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Democrats win fewer than 210 seats in the November 2026 election but gain seats through special elections or party switches before February 1, 2027our reading
- Democrats have exactly 210 seats on February 1, 2027our reading
- Democrats have fewer than 210 seats on election night but the count changes before February 1, 2027our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Democratic party has fewer than 210 House seats on February 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes. Independents who caucus with the Democrats will be counted as Democrats.
What the rules leave open
What happens if one or more House seats are vacant on February 1, 2027
closest the rules come: “If the Democratic party has below 210 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗How congress.gov documents the composition or where exactly on the website to look
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗