Will the Democratic party win 214-217 House seats in the 120th Congress? — 214-217
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 5¢
The catch
Independents who caucus with Democrats count as Democrats for seat totals.
“Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).” · contract terms ↗
Pays out only if
The Democratic party has between 214 and 217 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Democratic party has between 214-217 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be February 1 following the beginning of <term>, or the next date that data is available if it is not.” · contract terms ↗Counts as done when: composition documented by Congress on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to House composition made after February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET do not count.
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Democrats win exactly 213 or 218 seats (just outside the range)our reading
- Democrats have 214-217 seats on January 31 but composition changes by February 1our reading
- Democrats have 214-217 seats but an Independent who caucuses with them is not countedour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Democratic party has between 214 and 217 House seats on February 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
What the rules leave open
Whether the range 214-217 is inclusive on both ends (214 and 217 both count as YES).
closest the rules come: “If the value of <above/below/at least/between> is "between", then <seats> shall be a pair of numbers, and an Expiration Value that is greater than or equal to the lower value of the pair and less than or equal to the greater value of the pair are encompassed in the Payout Criterion.” · contract terms ↗How vacant seats are counted in the total.
closest the rules come: “The Underlying for this Contract is the composition (identity and partisan membership of) the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1 following the beginning of <term>.” · contract terms ↗What happens if congress.gov is unavailable or does not publish composition data.
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be February 1 following the beginning of <term>, or the next date that data is available if it is not.” · contract terms ↗