Will the Democratic party win 246-249 House seats in the 120th Congress? — 246-249
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 8¢
The catch
Independents who caucus with Democrats count as Democratic seats.
“Individuals caucusing with the Democrats will be included.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Democratic party has between 246 and 249 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Democratic party has between 246-249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Democratic party has between 246-249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: composition as documented by Congress on the Expiration Date
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Democrats win exactly 246-249 seats but independents who caucus with them are not countedour reading
- Democrats have 246-249 seats at a different date (e.g., election night, January 3 when Congress convenes)our reading
- Democrats have 246-249 seats based on election results but some seats change before February 1our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic party has between 246 and 249 House seats on February 1, 2027. Independents who caucus with the Democrats are included in the count.
What the rules leave open
Whether vacant seats that would likely go to Democrats are counted toward the total.
closest the rules come: “The Underlying for this Contract is the composition (identity and partisan membership of) the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1 following the beginning of <term>.” · contract terms ↗How the range boundaries work: whether 246-249 means exactly those values or includes them.
closest the rules come: “If the value of <above/below/at least/between> is "between", then <seats> shall be a pair of numbers, and an Expiration Value that is greater than or equal to the lower value of the pair and less than or equal to the greater value of the pair are encompassed in the Payout Criterion.” · contract terms ↗