Will the Democratic party win above 249 House seats in the 120th Congress? — Above 249
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 10¢
The catch
Independents who caucus with Democrats count as Democrats for seat totals.
“Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).” · contract terms ↗
Pays out only if
The Democratic party has more than 249 House seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Democratic party has above 249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Democratic party has above 249 House seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: composition documented by Congress on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to House composition made after February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET do not count
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Democrats win exactly 249 seats (threshold is 'above 249', so 249 is not enough)our reading
- Democrats gain seats after February 1, 2027 through special elections or party switchesour reading
- An Independent wins a seat but does not caucus with Democratsour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Democratic party has more than 249 House seats on February 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
What the rules leave open
How congress.gov documents the composition on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET is not specified
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗What happens if an Independent has not yet declared caucus affiliation by February 1, 2027
closest the rules come: “Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).” · contract terms ↗