Will the Democratic Party hold 49 seats in the 120th Congress? — 49
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 12¢
The catch
Independents who caucus with Democrats count as Democrats for seat totals.
“Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Democratic Party has exactly 49 Senate seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Democratic Party has exactly 49 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be February 1 following the beginning of <term>, or the next date that data is available if it is not.” · contract terms ↗Counts as done when: composition documented by Congress on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Democrats hold 49 seats registered as Democrats but one or more independents who caucus with them are not countedour reading
- Democrats hold 49 seats on a different date in early 2027 but not exactly on February 1our reading
- Democrats hold 51 or 53 seats (close to but not exactly 49)our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party has exactly 49 Senate seats on February 1, 2027. Independents who caucus with either party are counted with that party (for example, Bernie Sanders, an Independent who caucuses with Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).
What the rules leave open
How congress.gov documents caucusing status of independents is not specified.
What happens if the Senate composition is contested or unclear on February 1, 2027.
closest the rules come: “Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗