Will the Democratic Party hold less than 45 seats in the 120th Congress? — Below 45
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 5¢
The catch
Counts seats on February 1, 2027, not election results or inauguration day.
“If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Democratic Party holds more than 52 Senate seats on February 1, 2027.
“If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on February 1, 2027
“If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: composition documented by Congress on February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: United States Congress, congress.gov
“The Source Agency is the United States Congress” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to seat composition made after February 1, 2027 at 10:00 AM ET do not count
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Democrats win 53 Senate seats in the 2026 election but one senator dies or resigns before February 1, 2027our reading
- Democrats have 53 seats on January 3, 2027 (inauguration day) but lose one before February 1our reading
- An independent who previously caucused with Democrats switches to caucusing with Republicans before February 1, 2027our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party has more than 52 Senate seats on February 1, 2027. Independents who caucus with either party are counted with that party (for example, Bernie Sanders caucuses with Democrats and would be counted as a Democrat).
What the rules leave open
What happens if a senator is absent, hospitalized, or otherwise unable to serve but has not formally resigned on February 1, 2027
closest the rules come: “If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗How vacancies are counted if a seat is empty on February 1, 2027
closest the rules come: “If the Democratic Party has below 45 Senate seats on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Whether a senator-elect who has been certified but not yet sworn in counts as holding a seat
closest the rules come: “The Underlying for this Contract is the composition (identity and partisan membership of) the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1 following the beginning of <term>.” · contract terms ↗