Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting? — Hike 25bps
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 3¢
The catch
A hike greater than 25bps resolves this to Yes; exactly 25bps resolves to No.
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Federal Reserve raises rates by more than 25 basis points at the December 8, 2027 meeting.
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on December 8, 2027
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on December 08, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: FOMC decision release at 2:05 PM ET
“Expiration Date: The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a decision for <meeting> or three months after <date>.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov)
“Source Agency: The Source Agency is the Federal Reserve System.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
A hike of exactly 25 basis points does not count as YES
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No.” · market rules ↗If the FOMC meeting is canceled, this resolves to No
“If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.” · market rules ↗- Federal Reserve hikes by exactly 25 basis pointsour reading
- Federal Reserve announces a hike greater than 25bps but it becomes effective after December 8, 2027our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(d) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Federal Reserve raises rates by more than 25 basis points on December 8, 2027, the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike greater than 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
What the rules leave open
Whether revisions to the FOMC decision made after the Expiration Date would change the outcome
closest the rules come: “Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗What the Last Trading Date is (shown as <date> placeholder)
closest the rules come: “Last Trading Date: The Last Trading Date of the Contract will be <date>.” · contract terms ↗