Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting? — Cut >25bps
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 1¢
The catch
A 50-basis-point cut resolves this market to No, not Yes.
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Federal Reserve cuts the target federal funds rate by exactly 25 basis points at the January 27, 2027 FOMC meeting.
“If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on January 27, 2027
“If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: FOMC decision announced
“The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a decision for <meeting> or three months after <date>.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve
“The Source Agency is the Federal Reserve System.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
A rate cut of any amount other than exactly 25 basis points (e.g., 50 bps, 75 bps) does not count
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No.” · market rules ↗If the FOMC meeting is canceled, this market resolves to No
“If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.” · market rules ↗- Federal Reserve cuts rates by 50 basis points (a larger cut than 25bps)our reading
- Federal Reserve cuts rates by 12.5 basis points (a smaller cut than 25bps)our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(d) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points on January 27, 2027, this market resolves to Yes. Only one outcome in the series can resolve to Yes - they are mutually exclusive. For example, a 50-basis-point hike would resolve "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and this market to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes including this one resolve to No.
What the rules leave open
Whether revisions to the FOMC decision made after the initial announcement would change the outcome
closest the rules come: “Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗