Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting? — Hike 0bps
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 60¢
The catch
A 0bps hike means no rate change at all; this resolves Yes only if rates stay flat.
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Federal Reserve hikes rates by exactly 0 basis points at their January 27, 2027 meeting.
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on January 27, 2027
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: FOMC decision release at 2:05 PM ET
“Expiration Date: The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a decision for <meeting> or three months after <date>.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov)
“Source Agency: The Source Agency is the Federal Reserve System.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
A 25 basis point hike does not count as 0bps
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No.” · market rules ↗Any rate cut does not count as a 0bps hike
“This includes a raise in the target federal funds rate range (a "hike" of a certain amount, for example), a fall in the range (a "cut"), or no change to the range.” · contract terms ↗- The Fed maintains rates at their current level (no change)our reading
- The Fed announces they are holding rates steadyour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(d) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Federal Reserve hikes rates by 0 basis points on January 27, 2027, this market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: only one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50 basis point hike makes "Hike 25 bps" resolve to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" resolve to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not happen on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
What the rules leave open
Whether a '0bps hike' is semantically the same as 'no change' or 'maintaining rates' is unclear from the market rules
closest the rules come: “This includes a raise in the target federal funds rate range (a "hike" of a certain amount, for example), a fall in the range (a "cut"), or no change to the range.” · contract terms ↗What happens if the meeting is postponed to a different date rather than canceled entirely
closest the rules come: “If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.” · market rules ↗