Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting? — Hike >25bps
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 2¢
The catch
A 50-basis-point hike resolves this market to No, not Yes.
“For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Federal Reserve raises interest rates by exactly 25 basis points on January 27, 2027.
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on January 27, 2027
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: FOMC decision announced
“The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a decision for <meeting> or three months after <date>.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Reserve
“The Source Agency is the Federal Reserve System.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
A 50-basis-point hike does not count as a 25-basis-point hike
“For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No.” · market rules ↗Any hike other than exactly 25 basis points does not count
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes.” · market rules ↗If the FOMC meeting is canceled, this market resolves to No
“If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.” · market rules ↗- Federal Reserve hikes by 50 basis pointsour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(d) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points on January 27, 2027, this market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: only one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike makes "Hike 25 bps" resolve to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not happen on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
What the rules leave open
Whether a hike announced on January 27 but effective later would count
closest the rules come: “If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on January 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Whether revisions to the FOMC decision after the expiration time would change the outcome
closest the rules come: “Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗