Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting? — Hike 0bps
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 74¢
The catch
A 0bps hike means no rate change at all, not an increase.
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Federal Reserve hikes rates by 0 basis points at their July 28, 2027 meeting.
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on July 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on July 28, 2027
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on July 28, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: FOMC decision release at 2:05 PM ET
“Expiration Date: The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a decision for <meeting> or three months after <date>.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov)
“Source Agency: The Source Agency is the Federal Reserve System.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
A hike of any amount other than 0bps (e.g., 25bps, 50bps)
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No.” · market rules ↗- A rate cut
If the meeting is canceled
“If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.” · market rules ↗- The Fed maintains rates (no change) - this is what 0bps hike actually means, but the title says 'hike'our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(d) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Federal Reserve hikes rates by 0 basis points on July 28, 2027, this market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: only one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike makes "Hike 25 bps" resolve to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" resolve to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and doesn't happen on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
What the rules leave open
Whether a '0bps hike' is semantically the same as 'no change' or 'Fed maintains rate', or if it's a distinct outcome that never occurs.
closest the rules come: “If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.” · market rules ↗