Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting? — Cut >25bps
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 2¢
The catch
A 50bps cut would resolve this market to No, not Yes.
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Federal Reserve cuts rates by exactly 25 basis points on October 27, 2027.
“If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on October 27, 2027
“If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: FOMC decision announced
“The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a decision for <meeting> or three months after <date>.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov)
“The Source Agency is the Federal Reserve System.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
A 50bps cut resolves to No
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No.” · market rules ↗Any rate hike resolves to No
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes.” · market rules ↗No change to rates resolves to No
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes.” · market rules ↗- Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points (double the amount)our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(d) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Federal Reserve cuts rates by exactly 25 basis points on October 27, 2027, the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive, meaning only one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50 basis point hike would make "Hike 25 bps" resolve to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" resolve to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and doesn't happen on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
What the rules leave open
Whether a 25bps cut announced on October 27 but effective on a later date would count
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a decision for <meeting> or three months after <date>.” · contract terms ↗