Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2027 meeting? — Hike 0bps
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 70¢
The catch
A 0bps hike means the Fed maintains the rate unchanged.
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Federal Reserve hikes rates by 0 basis points at their September 15, 2027 meeting.
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on September 15, 2027
“If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on September 15, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: FOMC decision release at 2:05 PM ET
“The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a decision for <meeting> or three months after <date>.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov)
“The Source Agency is the Federal Reserve System.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Any rate hike other than 0 basis points
“The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes.” · market rules ↗- The Fed announces a rate hike of any amount other than 0bps at the September 2027 meetingour reading
- The Fed cuts rates instead of hikingour reading
- The FOMC meeting is postponed to a different date but still occurs in September 2027our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(d) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-10-02. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Federal Reserve hikes rates by 0 basis points on September 15, 2027, this market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: only one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves "Hike 25 bps" to Yes and "Hike 25 bps" to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
What the rules leave open
Whether a 0bps hike is the same as maintaining rates or if they are distinct outcomes
closest the rules come: “If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, "Fed maintains rate" resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.” · market rules ↗