Kalshi· Economics· open· settles 2029-02-28

GDP growth in 2028? — 4.1% to 4.5%

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Original rules text

If the United States real GDP growth in 2028 is between 4.1% to 4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2028. The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2028 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2028 GDP in early 2029. Revisions published after expiration will not be considered. All stated bounds are inclusive. For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “6.1% or above” includes 6.1%, and “0.0% or below” includes 0.0%.

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