Kalshi· Elections· open· settles 2030-03-25

Will AfD win the next election to the German Bundestag? — AfD

We haven't read this market's rules yet. The original text is below.

Original rules text

If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, the seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be combined and treated as a single CDU/CSU option This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

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