Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms? — Democratic Party
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 57¢
The catch
Independent governors are not counted for either party.
“For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus (ii) contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Democrats hold more governorships than Republicans after the 2026 midterm elections.
“If Democrats hold more governorships than Republicans after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗The other party has to be Republican Party
“If Democrats hold more governorships than Republicans after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on November 3, 2026
“If Democrats hold more governorships than Republicans after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: governorships won as determined under ELECTION contract resolution criteria
“For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus (ii) contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Governorships held by parties other than Democrats or Republicans are not counted for either party
“For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus (ii) contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.” · market rules ↗- Democrats and Republicans tie in number of governorshipsour reading
- Democrats gain governorships but Republicans still hold more overallour reading
- An independent governor caucuses with Democrats but is not counted as a Democratic governorshipour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗NOTEA specific counterparty is named
“If Democrats hold more governorships than Republicans after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If Democrats hold more governorships than Republicans after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes. The total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.
What the rules leave open
What are the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract referenced for determining contested governorships
closest the rules come: “For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus (ii) contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.” · market rules ↗What is the accelerated provision referenced in the ELECTION contract
closest the rules come: “For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus (ii) contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.” · market rules ↗What specific date or time point constitutes 'after the 2026 midterm elections'
closest the rules come: “If Democrats hold more governorships than Republicans after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗How uncontested governorships are determined or counted when party affiliation changes between elections
closest the rules come: “For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus (ii) contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.” · market rules ↗