Kalshi· Politics· open· closes 2029-01-22

Will the U.S. pay between $900 billion and $1199 billion for Greenland during Trump's term? — $900 billion to $1199 billion

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Original rules text

If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between $900 billion and $1199 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes. The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance (calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years), infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments. It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning. Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD. An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access. It does not include expanded base rights, trade agreements, or military occupation without a formal agreement. If no acquisition occurs in the time period, markets resolve to Yes for the "$0 / No Acquisition" bracket and No for all other brackets.

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