Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 0 and 2%? — Democrats, 0 to 2%
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 4¢
The catch
The margin must be at least 0% but less than 2%, not 0-2% inclusive.
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Democrats win the national House popular vote by at least 0% but less than 2%.
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗The other party has to be Republican party House candidates
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Deadline May 6, 2027
“The latest Expiration Date of the Contract shall be three months after the scheduled <political stat> release date for <time period>, or three months after the end of <time period> if that is not known.” · contract terms ↗Counts as done when: first official release of national House popular vote results
“Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Election Commission, official certifying authorities
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
A Democratic margin of exactly 2.0% or higher
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗A negative margin (Republicans winning the popular vote)
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Revised or corrected results released after the first official publication
“Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗- Democrats win by exactly 2.0%our reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗NOTEA specific counterparty is named
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves Yes if Democrats win the national House popular vote by at least 0% but less than 2%. The margin is calculated as: Democratic vote percentage minus Republican vote percentage across all House general election candidates. A positive margin means Democrats won the popular vote; a negative margin means they lost. The range 0 to 2% includes 0% but excludes 2%. No rounding is applied. For example, 1.99999% is in range, but exactly 2.0% is not.
What the rules leave open
Which specific agency or entity will be the Source Agency for the national House popular vote
closest the rules come: “The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗What constitutes the 'first official or non-preliminary release' versus unofficial or preliminary results
closest the rules come: “Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗Whether third-party candidates' votes are excluded from the calculation or included in the denominator
closest the rules come: “The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.” · market rules ↗