Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%? — Democrats, 10 to 12%
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 23¢
The catch
The 12% upper bound is excluded, so exactly 12.0% does not count as YES.
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Democratic party achieves a margin of victory between 10 and 12 percentage points in the 2026 House national popular vote.
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗The other party has to be Republican party
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗- Has to happen during 2026 U.S. House of Representatives general election
Counts as done when: first official or non-preliminary release of the national House popular vote results
“Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Election Commission, official certifying authorities
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revised or corrected vote totals released after the first official release do not count.
“Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗Third-party candidates' votes are not included in the margin calculation.
“The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.” · market rules ↗- Democratic margin is exactly 12.0% (excluded because upper bound is exclusive)our reading
- Democratic margin is 12.1% or higher (outside the specified range)our reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If no data is released by the Expiration Date, the market will resolve to the last fair price as solely determined by the Exchange.” · contract terms ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined on the Expiration Date, Kalshi has the right to determine payouts pursuant to Rule 7.1 in the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points (including 10%, excluding 12%), then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory is calculated as the Democratic party vote percentage minus the Republican party vote percentage in the general election. The margin is positive if Democrats win the national popular vote and negative if they lose. Each margin range includes its lower bound but excludes its upper bound. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
What the rules leave open
Which specific agency will be the Source Agency for certifying the national House popular vote results.
closest the rules come: “The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗What constitutes the 'first official or non-preliminary release' if different agencies release data at different times.
closest the rules come: “Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗How votes for candidates who run on both Democratic and Republican lines (fusion voting) are counted.
closest the rules come: “The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.” · market rules ↗Whether special elections held during 2026 are included in the national House popular vote calculation.
closest the rules come: “The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.” · market rules ↗