Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 2 and 4%? — Democrats, 2 to 4%
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 5¢
The catch
The 4% upper bound is excluded; a margin of exactly 4.0% does not resolve Yes.
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Democratic party achieves a margin of victory between 2% and 4% in the 2026 House national popular vote.
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗The other party has to be Republican party
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗- Has to happen during 2026 U.S. House of Representatives general election
Counts as done when: first official or non-preliminary release of the vote totals
“Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Election Commission, official certifying authorities
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Democrats achieve exactly 4.0% margin (excluded because upper bound is exclusive)our reading
- Democrats achieve 3.9% margin but the figure is later revised to 4.1% (revisions don't count)our reading
- Exit polls or unofficial counts show Democrats with 2-4% margin but official certified results show different marginour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If no data is released by the Expiration Date, the market will resolve to the last fair price as solely determined by the Exchange.” · contract terms ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points (including 2%, excluding 4%), then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory is calculated as the Democratic party vote percentage minus the Republican party vote percentage in the general election. The margin is positive if Democrats win the national popular vote and negative if they lose. Each margin range includes its lower bound but excludes its upper bound. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
What the rules leave open
Which specific Source Agency will be used (FEC or state-level certifying authorities) and in what order of hierarchy.
closest the rules come: “The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗Whether third-party candidates' votes are included in the calculation or only Democratic and Republican votes are counted.
closest the rules come: “The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.” · market rules ↗How vote percentages are calculated (as percentage of total votes cast, or percentage of two-party vote).
closest the rules come: “The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.” · market rules ↗