Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote? — Republicans win
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 9¢
The catch
Only the first official release counts; subsequent revisions or corrections will not affect resolution.
“Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗
Pays out only if
Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House national popular vote.
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗The other party has to be Democratic party House candidates
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗- Has to happen during 2026 U.S. House of Representatives
Counts as done when: first official release of 2026 House national popular vote results
“Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Election Commission, official certifying authorities
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revised or corrected vote totals released after the first official release
“Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗A Democratic margin of exactly 0 percentage points (tie)
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗- Republicans win the popular vote but the first official release is later revised to show Democrats wonour reading
- Republicans and Democrats tie exactly at 0 percentage point marginour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If no data is released by the Expiration Date, the market will resolve to the last fair price as solely determined by the Exchange.” · contract terms ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points (including -100, excluding 0). The national House popular vote margin is calculated as: Democratic vote percentage minus Republican vote percentage. A positive margin means Democrats won the popular vote; a negative margin means Republicans won. Each margin range includes its lower bound but excludes its upper bound. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin. For example, in consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% falls in the 5-6% range, while exactly 6% falls in the 6-7% range.
What the rules leave open
Which specific agency or authority will be considered the Source Agency for the first official release
closest the rules come: “The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗What constitutes an 'official' versus 'preliminary' release for House popular vote results
closest the rules come: “Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗How votes for third-party or independent candidates affect the calculation of the margin
closest the rules come: “The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.” · market rules ↗