Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 16 and 100%? — Democrats, 16% and above
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 2¢
The catch
A margin of exactly 16.0% counts as YES, but 15.99999% does not.
“Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Democratic party achieves a margin of victory between 16 and 100 percentage points in the 2026 House national popular vote.
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 16 and 100 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗The other party has to be Republican party
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 16 and 100 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on November 30, 2026
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 16 and 100 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: official certification by the Federal Election Commission
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Election Commission, official certifying authorities
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Democrats win the House popular vote by 15.9%our reading
- Democrats win by 16.5% but the result is revised after initial certificationour reading
- Exit polls show a 20% Democratic margin but official certified results show 15%our reading
- Democrats win by 16% including third-party votes in the calculationour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If no data is released by the Expiration Date, the market will resolve to the last fair price as solely determined by the Exchange.” · contract terms ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 16 and 100 percentage points (including 16%, excluding 100%), then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory is calculated as the Democratic party vote percentage minus the Republican party vote percentage in the general election. The margin is positive if Democrats win the national popular vote and negative if they lose. Each margin range includes its lower bound but excludes its upper bound. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
What the rules leave open
Whether special elections or runoffs held after the general election date are included in the vote totals.
closest the rules come: “The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.” · market rules ↗Which specific certifying authority's figures are used if different states certify at different times with slightly different totals.
closest the rules come: “The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗Whether votes for candidates who run as both Democratic and another party (fusion voting) count as Democratic votes.
closest the rules come: “The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.” · market rules ↗