Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%? — Democrats, 8 to 10%
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 29¢
The catch
The 10% upper bound is exclusive, so exactly 10.0% does not count as YES.
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 House national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points.
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗The other party has to be Republican party House candidates
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on November 3, 2026
“The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: first official release of vote percentages by Source Agency
“Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Federal Election Commission, official certifying authorities
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to the margin made after expiration do not count
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗A margin of exactly 10.0% or higher does not count as YES
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗A margin below 8.0% does not count as YES
“If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗- The Democratic margin is exactly 10.0%our reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If no data is released by the Expiration Date, the market will resolve to the last fair price as solely determined by the Exchange.” · contract terms ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points. The range includes 8% but excludes 10%. The margin is calculated as the Democratic vote percentage minus the Republican vote percentage in the general election. The margin is positive if Democrats win the national popular vote and negative if they lose. Each margin range includes its lower bound but excludes its upper bound. No rounding is applied to the calculated margin. For example, a margin of 5.99999% falls in the 5-6% range, while exactly 6% falls in the 6-7% range.
What the rules leave open
The Settlement Sources list 'Statistical Review of World Energy' which appears unrelated to U.S. House elections
closest the rules come: “The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the statistical agency or entity responsible for the calculation and/or release of <political stat> (e.g. polling agencies, Federal Election Commission, or official certifying authorities)” · contract terms ↗Whether third-party candidates' votes are excluded from the calculation or included in the total
closest the rules come: “The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election.” · market rules ↗