Kalshi· Politics· open· closes 2030-01-01

Will CK Hutchison win its Panama ports arbitration? — Before 2030

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Original rules text

If CK Hutchison has achieved the superior outcome in the trial-level resolution of its Panama ports arbitration (originally filed in the ICC), then the market resolves to Yes. The Panama ports arbitration is the International Chamber of Commerce arbitration brought against the Republic of Panama over the Balboa and Cristobal terminals by Panama Ports Company, CK Hutchison's subsidiary. A recovery by Panama Ports Company is a recovery by CK Hutchison for the purposes of this market. CK Hutchison's separate treaty-based claim against Panama, and its arbitration against Maersk, do not resolve this market. If no trial-level resolution occurs before the expiration date, the market resolves to No. CK Hutchison achieves the superior outcome through the following exclusive hierarchy: Net Monetary Recovery (Highest Priority): CK Hutchison achieves the superior outcome if they receive a larger net monetary award than all opposing parties combined (after offsetting any awards against CK Hutchison). Attorney's fees and costs are excluded. Substantive Legal Victory (Second Priority): If no net monetary advantage exists, CK Hutchison achieves the superior outcome if they prevail on claims seeking the largest dollar amount of relief in their original pleadings, or if relief amounts are equal, on the greater number of primary causes of action. Case Termination Advantage (Third Priority): If the case terminates without substantive judgment, CK Hutchison achieves the superior outcome if (as defendant) all claims are dismissed with prejudice, or (as plaintiff) opposing parties voluntarily dismiss all claims with prejudice. All other termination scenarios result in no superior outcome for any party. Settlements: Superior outcome if net payment flows to CK Hutchison; no superior outcome if payment flows from CK Hutchison; no party achieves superior outcome if terms are sealed or undisclosed. Key exclusions: Applies only to trial-level resolution and specifically excludes all appeals processes. Procedural victories alone do not constitute superior outcomes.

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