Will Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index be at least 6 in the 2026 edition?
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 4¢
The catch
Only the first official release counts; revisions or corrections after that won't change the outcome.
“Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗
Pays out only if
Iran's score in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report must be at least 6.00.
“If Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index is at least 6.00 as published in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during 2026 edition
“If Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index is at least 6.00 as published in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: as published in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report
“If Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index is at least 6.00 as published in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index
“If Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index is at least 6.00 as published in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Revisions to the score made after the first official release
“Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗Scores below 6.00
“If Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index is at least 6.00 as published in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗- Iran's score is 5.99 (just below the threshold)our reading
- Iran's score reaches 6.00 in a revised version published after the first official releaseour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If no data is released by the Expiration Date, the market will resolve to the last fair price as solely determined by the Exchange.” · contract terms ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If Iran's score in the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index is at least 6.00 as published in the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report, then the market resolves to Yes.
What the rules leave open
What counts as the 'first official release' of the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report
closest the rules come: “Unless explicitly stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release or publication of the relevant <political stat> will be used to resolve the market, and subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates will not affect resolution.” · contract terms ↗The exact date when the EIU Democracy Index 2026 report will be published
closest the rules come: “The latest Expiration Date of the Contract shall be three months after the scheduled <political stat> release date for <time period>, or three months after the end of <time period> if that is not known.” · contract terms ↗How rounding is applied if Iran's score is reported with more than two decimal places
closest the rules come: “For statistics expressed as percentages or non-integers, rounding follows the Source Agency's convention. If the Source Agency reports to one decimal place, the Contract resolves based on that precision.” · contract terms ↗