Kalshi· Elections· open· closes 2030-10-28

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030? — Yair Golan

We haven't read this market's rules yet. The original text is below.

Too little has been traded here to be worth a read. Bigger markets get read first.

Original rules text

If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from The Times of Israel qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. This market concerns the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, including a government formed after repeat elections. A new government is formed when the Knesset expresses confidence in it. A retained incumbent counts if appointed in that new government; continuation in the outgoing government does not. Minister of Defense means the holder of the Defense portfolio, including a Prime Minister who also formally holds it. An acting substitute, deputy minister, additional minister within the Defense Ministry, or Minister of National Security does not count. If the portfolio is initially vacant, the first person subsequently appointed to it in that government counts. Nominations, coalition agreements, intended appointments, and hypothetical scenarios do not qualify as taking office. Later replacements do not change the first officeholder.

Source ↗

Get the weekly five

The five worst-worded open markets, every Sunday.