More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025? — Yes
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 96¢
The catch
A listing error means traders with positions as of March 13, 2026 get $1 if layoffs fall between 447,000-494,000.
“This market was listed using an incorrect underlying value for tech layoffs in 2025. The correct floor strike is 447,000 layoffs, not 494,000 as currently specified. If the final layoff count falls between those two numbers, we will pay out $1.00 to all traders with an open position as of March 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.” — market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Information sector layoffs in 2026 must exceed 447,000.
“If there are more than 447,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗Has to happen during 2026
“If there are more than 447,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗Counts as done when: The value as documented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the Expiration Date
“The Expiration Value is the value of the Underlying as documented by the Source Agency on the Expiration Date at the Expiration time.” — contract terms ↗Decided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED
“The Source Agency is the Bureau of Labor Statistics.” — contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to the underlying made after expiration do not count
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” — contract terms ↗- Layoffs reach exactly 447,000 (not more than)our reading
- Layoffs in other tech-related sectors (not information sector specifically) exceed the thresholdour reading
- Layoffs exceed 447,000 but the data is revised downward after expirationour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” — contract terms ↗NOTEPays out on special terms as well as the trigger
“If the final layoff count falls between those two numbers, we will pay out $1.00 to all traders with an open position as of March 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET. The rulebook variable has been updated accordingly. Trades executed after this time are not eligible for reimbursement.” — market rules ↗
Read on 2026-09-09. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If there are more than 447,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2026, the market resolves to Yes. Important note: This market was listed with the wrong baseline value for 2025 tech layoffs. The correct threshold is 447,000 layoffs, not 494,000 as originally shown. If the final layoff count falls between 447,000 and 494,000, everyone who held a position as of March 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET will receive $1.00. The threshold has been corrected. Trades made after March 13, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET are not eligible for this reimbursement.
What the rules leave open
Whether the information sector is the same as 'tech' as stated in the market title
closest the rules come: “If there are more than 447,000 layoffs in the information sector in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗What happens if the Bureau of Labor Statistics does not release the data within three months after 2026 ends
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event encompassed by the Payout Criterion, the first 10:00 AM ET following the release of the full data for <year>, or three months after <year> has ended.” — contract terms ↗