Inflation surge in 2026? — At least 5%
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 18¢
The catch
Uses unadjusted CPI-U, not the seasonally adjusted figure commonly reported in headlines.
“The Underlying for this Contract is the set of signed U.S. one-month percent changes in the seasonally unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") for each month in <period>, measured year-over-year.” · contract terms ↗
Pays out only if
Year-over-year CPI inflation reaches at least 5% in any month during 2026.
“If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during 2026
“If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: BLS publication of the monthly CPI report
“The Underlying for this Contract is the set of signed U.S. one-month percent changes in the seasonally unadjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") for each month in <period>, measured year-over-year.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Bureau of Labor Statistics
“The Source Agency is the Bureau of Labor Statistics.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Revisions to CPI data made after expiration do not count
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Seasonally adjusted CPI reaches 5% but unadjusted does notour reading
- CPI reaches 5% in a revision published after market expirationour reading
- Core CPI (excluding food and energy) reaches 5% but headline CPI-U does notour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If year-over-year CPI inflation is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.