Will Tim Walz leave the governorship of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027? — Before 2027
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 4¢
The catch
Natural expiration of his term counts as leaving, not just early resignation.
“For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Tim Walz must cease being Governor of Minnesota.
“If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before December 31, 2026
“If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: actual departure date by vacating the role
“Tim Walz must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period.” · market rules ↗Decided by: the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, Tim Walz, official government records and registries, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Fox News, Politico
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which <role> is held, <person>, official government records and registries (e.g., Congressional Record, Federal Register, official state/local government databases), The White House, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNBC, Politico, ABC News Australia, Deutsche Welle, and BBC News.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not count unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
“Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.” · market rules ↗If Tim Walz vacates the role and then re-occupies it, the contract settles on the initial vacation.
“If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.” · market rules ↗- Tim Walz announces he will not seek re-election but continues serving through his current termour reading
- Tim Walz takes a temporary leave of absence for medical or personal reasons but does not permanently vacateour reading
Watch out
HIGHA Yes here may pay less than a dollar
“If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.” · market rules ↗- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If Tim Walz stops being Governor of Minnesota after the market is issued and before 2027, the market resolves to Yes. Tim Walz must have an actual date when he vacates the role within the time period. If Tim Walz dies while holding the role, all contracts may resolve to the last fair price as decided by the Exchange. Temporary leaves, suspensions, or recusals do not count as leaving unless he formally and permanently stops holding the position. If he vacates the role and then takes it back, the contract may settle based on when he first left. For "leave," stopping holding the role counts, including resignation, retirement, removal, term expiration without renewal, recall, or any other way he no longer holds the role—this includes both leaving early voluntarily AND when a term naturally expires.
What the rules leave open
What counts as 'Issuance' - the starting point of the time window is not defined in the documents.
closest the rules come: “If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Whether 'before 2027' means before January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM or some other specific time.
closest the rules come: “If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗