Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026? — Ken Paxton and Susan Collins
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 25¢
The catch
Both races must be won; if either Paxton or Collins loses, the entire market resolves No.
“If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
Ken Paxton must win the Texas Senate race and Susan Collins must win the Maine Senate race in the 2026 midterms.
“If ALL of the following occur: Texas Senate: Ken Paxton wins, Maine Senate: Susan Collins wins, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Decided at the event on November 30, 2026
“All conditions must be satisfied for the 2026 midterms.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Election results documented by Source Agencies
“The Underlying for this Contract is the outcomes, announcements, and data releases regarding <outcomes> as documented by the Source Agencies between Issuance and the resolution of each <component>.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, The Washington Post, Politico
“for all political/economic events: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, The Washington Post, Politico, and official statements from specified government entities, persons, or international organizations.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Ken Paxton wins Texas Senate but Susan Collins loses Maine Senateour reading
- Susan Collins wins Maine Senate but Ken Paxton loses Texas Senateour reading
- Ken Paxton wins a primary but loses the general electionour reading
- Either candidate wins but results are not documented by Source Agencies before expirationour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market pays Yes if both of these happen: Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate race and Susan Collins wins the Maine Senate race. This is a combination market requiring all specified outcomes to occur for payout. If any single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset for U.S. elections. All conditions must be satisfied for the 2026 midterms.
What the rules leave open
What constitutes a 'win' - is it when results are called by media, when votes are certified, or when the winner is sworn in?
closest the rules come: “Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: Texas Senate (USELECTION), Maine Senate (USELECTION).” · market rules ↗The settlement sources list Bureau of Labor Statistics and Federal Reserve sources, which are irrelevant to Senate elections, creating uncertainty about which sources actually apply.
closest the rules come: “for all political/economic events: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, The Washington Post, Politico, and official statements from specified government entities, persons, or international organizations.” · contract terms ↗