Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? — Before 2027
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 9¢
The catch
Preventing a scheduled tax reduction does not count as a rate increase.
“Extending, renewing, or otherwise preserving an existing temporary rate, including preventing a scheduled reduction, does not constitute a rate increase.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
A law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate must become law in New York City.
“If a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen before December 31, 2026
“If a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: law becomes legally binding and effective
“Enactment is defined as the completion of all constitutional and legal requirements for <law> to become legally binding and effective within the specified jurisdiction.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: geography's legislative bodies, geography's official government websites, major newspapers in geography, the Federal Register, The White House, The United States Congress, relevant governmental agency in geography, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, NBC
“The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order: <geography>'s legislative bodies, <geography>'s official government websites, major newspapers in <geography>, the Federal Register, The White House, The United States Congress, the relevant governmental agency in <geography>, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Bloomberg News, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, and NBC.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
Extending, renewing, or preserving an existing temporary rate does not count
“Extending, renewing, or otherwise preserving an existing temporary rate, including preventing a scheduled reduction, does not constitute a rate increase.” · market rules ↗Preventing a scheduled reduction does not count
“Extending, renewing, or otherwise preserving an existing temporary rate, including preventing a scheduled reduction, does not constitute a rate increase.” · market rules ↗Legislative passage without completed executive action still pending at deadline
“Legislative passage without completed executive action still pending at <date>” · contract terms ↗Passage by some but not all constitutionally required legislative bodies
“Passage by some but not all constitutionally required legislative bodies by <date>” · contract terms ↗
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 7.1 of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-11. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves Yes if a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate becomes law in New York City before January 1, 2027. Extending, renewing, or preserving an existing temporary rate does not count as a rate increase. This includes preventing a scheduled reduction. Laws passed by New York State count if they apply to or govern New York City.
What the rules leave open
- Who Mamdani is and what role they play in the enactment process
What constitutes the NYC Business tax rate versus New York State corporate tax rate
closest the rules come: “If a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Whether a law that raises one rate but not the other qualifies
closest the rules come: “If a law raising the NYC Business or New York State corporate tax rate has become law in New York City before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗