Will Dune: Part Three win Best Picture at the Oscars? — Dune: Part Three::
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 13¢
Pays out only if
Dune: Part Three wins Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards.
“If Dune: Part Three has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during March 2027
“The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: winners announced by Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
“Expiration Date: The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the winners for <number> Academy Awards ceremony, or <expo_date>.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, website of the Oscars
“The Source Agency is the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Dune: Part Three wins a different Oscar category but not Best Pictureour reading
- Dune: Part Three is nominated for Best Picture but does not winour reading
- The 99th Academy Awards are postponed to after March 2027 and Dune: Part Three wins thenour reading
- A different Dune film wins Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awardsour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If Dune: Part Three wins Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market has not been endorsed by the Oscars.
What the rules leave open
What happens if the 99th Academy Awards ceremony is postponed beyond the <expo_date> deadline
closest the rules come: “Expiration Date: The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the winners for <number> Academy Awards ceremony, or <expo_date>.” · contract terms ↗The specific <expo_date> value for this market is not stated in the documents
closest the rules come: “<expo_date> refers to a calendar date specified by Kalshi.” · contract terms ↗Whether revisions to winners after the initial announcement would count
closest the rules come: “Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗