Will Obsession win Best Picture at the Oscars? — Obsession
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 1¢
Pays out only if
Obsession wins Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards.
“If Obsession has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during March 2027
“The 99thth Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Winners announced by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
“The Underlying for this Contract is award winners at the <number> Academy Awards according to the website of the Oscars.” · contract terms ↗Decided by: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences
“The Source Agency is the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.” · contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Obsession wins Best Picture but the Academy revises the result after the expiration dateour reading
- Obsession wins a different major Oscar award but not Best Pictureour reading
- Obsession is announced as winner but later disqualified before official confirmationour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
If Obsession wins Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards are expected to be held in March 2027. This market is not endorsed by the Oscars.
What the rules leave open
Whether 'Obsession' refers to a specific film or any film with that exact title
closest the rules come: “If Obsession has won Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗What happens if the 99th Academy Awards are postponed beyond March 2027
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the winners for <number> Academy Awards ceremony, or <expo_date>.” · contract terms ↗The specific value of <expo_date> that would serve as the alternative expiration date
closest the rules come: “The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the winners for <number> Academy Awards ceremony, or <expo_date>.” · contract terms ↗