Will Tucker Carlson be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party? — Tucker Carlson
Open on Kalshi ↗Yes last at 3¢
Pays out only if
- Tucker Carlson must win and accept the Republican party nomination for President in 2028.“If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗
- The other party has to be the Republican party“If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗
- Has to happen before November 1, 2028“Expiration Date: The Expiration Date of the Contract shall be the sooner of the date of the first 10:00 AM ET following the occurrence of an event encompassed by the Payout Criterion for any candidate or the day of the November popular vote for the Presidency in <election year>.” — contract terms ↗
- Counts as done when: the first person to have been nominated by the party and to have accepted the nomination“The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that <candidate> is the nominee (they are the first person to have been nominated by the party and to have accepted the nomination) for <political party> in <election year>.” — contract terms ↗
- Decided by: Republican Party, The Republican Party“Source Agency: The Source Agency is <political party>.” — contract terms ↗
Does not count
- Tucker Carlson wins the nomination but does not accept it
- Tucker Carlson accepts the nomination but someone else was nominated first
- Tucker Carlson is nominated and accepts after the November 2028 election day
- Tucker Carlson is nominated by a different political party
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
- WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” — contract terms ↗
- NOTEA specific counterparty is named“If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” — market rules ↗
Read on 2026-09-09 from the documents listed under “What we read”. Facts and gaps only — not a prediction.
What we read
- Market rules — the text shown on the market page ↗
- Settlement source — Republican Party ↗
- Settlement source — Democratic Party ↗
- Contract terms — the series contract (PDF) ↗
The rules, in plain English
If Tucker Carlson wins and accepts the Republican party's nomination for President in 2028, the market resolves to Yes.
What the rules leave open
- What counts as official acceptance of the nomination
- Whether revisions to the underlying after expiration would affect settlement (contract says they won't be accounted for)
- How the Republican Party website will document the nomination and acceptance