Kalshi· Politics· open· closes 2029-01-20

Will Trump recognize Somaliland? — Before Jan 20, 2029

We haven't read this market's rules yet. The original text is below.

Original rules text

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, the market resolves to Yes. This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state. Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes. Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify. Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient. Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state. Nor does U.S. abstention or vote in an international organization automatically equate to bilateral recognition.

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