Will there be a recession in 2027?
The catch
Only the Advance Estimate counts; later revisions are ignored even if they change the result.
“GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.” · market rules ↗
Pays out only if
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027.
“If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Has to happen during Q4 2026 through Q4 2027
“If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗Counts as done when: Release of the Advance Estimate for each quarter
“GDP growth refers to the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter.” · market rules ↗Decided by: Bureau of Economic Analysis
“If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.” · market rules ↗
Does not count
Revisions to GDP estimates made after expiration do not count
“Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” · contract terms ↗- Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur, but later revisions to the Advance Estimates change one or both quarters to positive growthour reading
- Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth occur in 2027, but they span Q3 2027 and Q4 2027 with Q4 2026 being positive (so the pair doesn't include Q4 2026)our reading
- A recession is officially declared by NBER but there are not two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the specified windowour reading
Watch out
- WATCHSome obvious wins don't count
WATCHThe venue keeps a right to review the outcome
“Before Settlement, Kalshi may, at its sole discretion, initiate the Market Outcome Review Process pursuant to Rule 6.3(c) of the Rulebook.” · contract terms ↗
Read on 2026-09-10. Click a line for the sentence it rests on. Facts and gaps only, not a prediction.
The rules, in plain English
This market resolves to Yes if there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the period from Q4 2026 through Q4 2027, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The consecutive quarters can include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. GDP growth means the quarter-over-quarter annualized percent change in real GDP as reported in the Advance Estimate for each quarter. The market will close at whichever comes first: the event happening or 8:25 AM ET on the morning the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP is expected to be released. The market will expire at whichever comes first: the event happening or the first 10:00 AM ET after the Advance Estimate of 2027 Q4 GDP is released.
What the rules leave open
Whether Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 are the only qualifying consecutive quarters, or if any two consecutive quarters in the window count (e.g., Q2 2027 and Q3 2027)
closest the rules come: “For the avoidance of doubt, qualifying consecutive quarters may include Q4 2026 and Q1 2027.” · market rules ↗